As NFL season enters home stretch, which prop bet markets are worth backing at decent odds?
We are getting closer to the end of the 2021 National Football League season, and there are many races that are all but over heading into Week 11.
Take one look at the NFC East, the NFC North, the AFC South, and maybe even the NFC South, and tell me you don’t know exactly which team is going to win those divisions after 10 weeks, even with the added 17th game this year.
But that still leaves four divisions (although the sportsbooks still think the AFC East is all Buffalo despite the charging Patriots) that could go down to the wire.
The NFC West is a two-team battle between the Arizona Cardinals (odds of -200) and the Los Angeles Rams (odds of +180), and the AFC North still looks to be Baltimore’s (odds of -150) to lose ahead of Cleveland (odds of +450), Cincinnati (odds of +500), and Pittsburgh (odds of +650). The odds provided by the betting deals aggregator Offers.bet.
That leaves us one division: the AFC West.
Here is a look at the current odds to win that wide open division.
AFC West current odds:
Kansas City Chiefs, -110
Los Angeles Chargers, +160
Las Vegas Raiders, +900
Denver Broncos, +1200
Coming into Week 11, all four teams were at .500 or above (like the AFC North). Before the season, Kansas City, the two-time defending AFC champions, were heavy favorites with all the books. But the Chiefs struggled for a bit, then took charge last week with a big win over Vegas. You can still get KC at -110 odds, which seems like a bit of a steal. And if you think that is a steal, I might have another one for you below in the NFL MVP odds.
NFL MVP current odds:
Josh Allen, +250
Tom Brady, +400
Dak Prescott, +600
Matthew Stafford, +800
Kyler Murray, +800
Aaron Rodgers, +1000
Lamar Jackson, +1400
Patrick Mahomes, +2000
I do not get why Josh Allen is so far ahead of the pack here. If you remember back to last year, though, Aaron Rodgers was also in the middle of the pack, before he led the Pack to the NFC title game. So, the odds coming into this week might not be the way the race ends in early January.
I would be all over Dak Prescott at +600, since the Dallas Cowboys might get home field in the NFC, and I would be looking very closely at Patrick Mahomes. If the Chiefs go on a tear in the second half of the season, and Mahomes throws for 5,000 yards to get his team out of their early-season doldrums, he could be the guy: and you can get him right now at +2000 odds!
That segways nicely into the final prop bet play.
Most passing yards current odds:
Tom Brady, +200
Patrick Mahomes, +450
Matthew Stafford, +450
Derek Carr, +650
All of these quarterbacks are going to be slinging the ball all over the parks, but Mahomes would be my play here as well to bring home the title. He was less than 100 yards behind Stafford for the league lead heading into Week 11, and the Chiefs need Mahomes to be the Mahomes of 2018-2020.
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